It is widely expected that Iran will launch an attack on Israel, and the proxy forces in the region that Iran has armed for decades could be involved in the expected attack.
The ongoing negotiations on establishing a temporary truce in the Gaza Strip to cease fire and withdraw the occupation forces from certain areas are causing a delay in the Iranian response so far, as this truce gives Hamas an opportunity to organize its forces in order to continue the fighting in case the IDF returns to proceed with the confrontation.
The United States is making every effort to stop the conflict in Gaza in the hope that Iran will withdraw from the idea of a violent response to Israel, which it intends to launch simultaneously from multiple proxy forces, according to reports coming from Tehran.
If negotiations do not yield any real benefit for the Palestinian people, Iranian retaliation will be expected. Gaza will be the green light to start or cancel the retaliation, especially since Iran has stopped all retaliatory measures. Iran previously stated that it was willing to sacrifice its retaliation if Israel takes real steps towards permanently ceasing fire and ending the aggression in Gaza.
If negotiations fail to reach a permanent cease-fire agreement in Gaza, it could lead to escalation and all-out war, causing even greater destruction than what happened in Gaza and could bring together militia groups from Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, and ignite conflict throughout the Middle East, with the United States potentially involved.
This article explains Iran's previous practice of arming militias, its allies in the region, which Tehran describes as the Axis of Resistance, their history, and their military capabilities, which will play a major role if Iran launches an attack against Israel, regardless of any escalation.
IRGC
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, also known as the IRGC, is the most dominant branch of the Iranian military and is directly influenced by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran and plays a crucial role in shaping the Middle East for Tehran.
The IRGC was established after the Iranian Revolution of 1979 in an effort to combine various paramilitary forces into a single force that would protect the new regime with the objective of countering the power and influence of the regular military, which was initially perceived as a potential threat due to its loyalty to the Shah. It also led to the establishment of Iran's policy of arming militias in the region.
In the past, the Shah government was given weapons equipment, including F-14 fighter jets, by the United States. However, these shipments and maintenance programs were halted after the revolution.
In the 1980s, Iran's arsenal was largely destroyed by Iraq during an eight-year conflict. Iran was unable to acquire new weapons due to international sanctions, particularly those related to its nuclear program. Whereas Israel and the Gulf Arab states allied with the USA have obtained advanced weapons. Despite having its own missile program, Iran cannot compete with those advanced weapons. Israel has clear battlefield superiority due to its advanced air force and defence technologies, but Iranian missile strikes, and proxy warfare possess asymmetric capabilities that can squeeze both Israel and the United States.
Military capabilities
It is estimated that the IRGC has around 125,000 total personnel, but some experts think it may be even more. It has army, naval, and air units. In addition, it has intelligence capabilities and a vast military arsenal. Another element of the IRGC is the Quds Force, a special forces unit that handles foreign activities, tasked with unconventional warfare roles and military intelligence operations that support non-state actors in many countries, including Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Houthi movement, and Shia militias in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan, known to provide training and assistance to various organizations in the region and beyond.
What is the 'Axis of Resistance' and how does Iran utilize its armed proxy forces?
Iran's presence in the region and its control of influence from Israel, the United States, and certain Sunni nations in the Middle East are largely dependant on armed proxy forces.
Tehran refers to these proxy groups as the 'Axis of Resistance', a term describing the networks of proxies and allied groups in the region that serve as a frontline defence against its adversaries, which includes:
Hezbollah
In 1982, when Israel invaded southern Lebanon, Hezbollah was established. Hezbollah is a Lebanese Shia Islamist political party and paramilitary group from Lebanon. It is considered to be more powerful than the Lebanese army itself.
Initially, Lebanese clerics established Hezbollah to combat the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon, it followed the strategy laid out by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini following the Iranian Revolution in 1979. The party's founders adopted the name 'Hezbollah' as chosen by Khomeini. Since then, Iran and Hezbollah have established close ties. The organization was established with the assistance of 1,500 IRGC instructors.
Between 1985 and 2000, Hezbollah was involved in the South Lebanon conflict and fought against the South Lebanon Army (SLA) and Israel Defence Forces (IDF), making it an extension of the Lebanese civil war that ended in 1990 and resulted in about 150,000 deaths and forced almost 1 million people to flee Lebanon. Hezbollah fought the IDF once more during the 2006 Lebanon War. Hezbollah has also been involved in conflicts outside the Middle East. In the 1990s, during the Bosnian conflict, Hezbollah actively recruited volunteers to join the Army of the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Hezbollah has been characterized as a 'state within a state' and has extended its reach to involve roles in the Lebanese government, satellite and radio television stations, social services, and deploying fighters beyond Lebanon's borders on a large scale.
The threat Hezbollah poses to Israel is significant because of its large arsenal of missiles and its battle-hardened forces, which have been involved in past activities in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
Past activities in Syria
In Syria, Hezbollah has given their support to Assad by deploying large numbers of its personnel in the past several years, which has positively impacted the Assad regime's struggle for survival.
Hezbollah and hundreds of military specialists, including senior commanders from the Quds Force, fought in Syria, collected intelligence, and managed the logistics of the battle to save the Assad regime.
Past activities in Iraq
Since 2003, Iran's Quds Force has requested assistance from Hezbollah to increase Tehran's presence in Iraq. To this end, Hezbollah established Unit 3800 to provide support to Iraqi Shiite militant groups that were attacking multinational forces there.
Unit 3800, as per U.S. intelligence, dispatched a small number of personnel to Iraq to train hundreds of fighters there, while others were brought to Lebanon for more advanced training.
Hezbollah gave Iraqi militias weapons and funding, but its most dangerous involvement was in special operations. According to a 2010 Pentagon report, the group provided these militias with "the training, tactics and technology to conduct kidnappings [and] small unit tactical operations," and to "employ sophisticated improvised explosive devices (IEDs), incorporating lessons learned from operations in Southern Lebanon."
Past activities in Yemen
Since the withdrawal of American and multinational forces from Iraq, Unit 3800 has been assigned to work in various locations throughout the region, with a particular emphasis on Yemen, specifically the Houthis, a Zaidi Shiite insurgent group, took control over large areas of Yemen during a civil war that started in 2014. Hezbollah and Quds Forcepersonnel have provided them with assistance in fighting the government.
According to Reuters, in 2024, Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping were reportedly being directed by commanders from Hezbollah and IRGC on the ground in Yemen.
Yemeni authorities and Sunni states have repeatedly claimed that Iran and its proxy Hezbollah have given the Houthis weapons, financial aid, and training. Nevertheless, Iranian and Hezbollah officials have denied or downplayed the claims. In addition, the Houthis denied that they are an Iranian proxy and often act independently. The United States has provided physical proof of Iranian arms transfers to the group in collaboration with Saudi Arabia.
Capabilities
As of 2020, Hezbollah has become the most powerful and heavily armed non-state actor in the world, with at least 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided missiles. Hezbollah also has drones and surface-to-air missile systems. According to its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah has 100,000 well-trained fighters.
Hezbollah is a force that possesses both conventional and unconventional military capabilities. They excel in cover and concealment, direct fire, and preparing fighting positions. In southern Lebanon, the group has constructed a substantial number of tunnels, weapons caches, and bunkers, and has a significant intelligence apparatus. Despite having no manned aircraft, tanks, or armoured vehicles, they still have armor in Syria, specifically T-55 and T-72 tanks.
Any war between Israel and Hezbollah is bound to result in mutually assured destruction (MAD) on a scale that would threaten Israel's existence.
Hezbollah's arsenal of rockets and missiles is so large that Israeli air defence systems would be overwhelmed by them, even temporarily, because of the sheer number of rockets fired at once.
Both weapons systems have the capacity to cause destruction to cities, including both military and civilian infrastructure, resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths.
Houthi rebels
The Houthi movement, also known as Ansar Allah, is an Islamist political and military organization that emerged from Yemen in the 1990s. They follow the Shia Zaydi faith, a sect of Shia Islam that is mostly found in Yemen.
The Houthis have been fighting Yemen's Sunni-dominated government since 2004. During the civil war in 2014, the insurgent group seized control of Sanaa, Yemen's capital, and gained control over much of northern Yemen by 2016.
The Houthis aspire to control Yemen and support external movements that oppose the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. The Houthis' ideological background has made the Yemen conflict widely seen as a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Iran is widely accused of backing the Houthis, but the Houthis deny being an Iranian proxy and often act independently. The issue of Iran's direct control over the Houthis is still up for debate.
Capabilities
The Houthis are equipped with an arsenal of weapons that consists of ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as drones.It is estimated that the rebels and their allies have approximately 20,000 fighters. However, the rebels claim that they have gathered an extra 200,000 fighters since starting their attacks in October.
The United States and Saudi Arabia have repeatedly accused Iran of supplying the Houthis with missiles, drones, and other weapons, as well as financial assistance, intelligence, and tactical assistance, which Tehran denies. Houthis have also been trained to attack maritime shipping and USA warships.
According to the Houthis, their drones are manufactured in their country, but analysts report that they are made with components smuggled from Iran, including ballistic and cruise missiles.
In their arsenal, the Houthis have:
- Iranian Shahed-136 drones that Russia is employing in its war on Ukraine, and they have a range of approximately 2,000 kilometers.
- Another drone model, the Samad-3. The exact range is not known, but it is believed to be approximately 1,600 kilometers. Samad-3 drones have been used by the Houthis in attacks against certain Gulf states, and they can carry 18 kilograms (40 pounds) of explosives. Their drones are guided by GPS and autonomously move towards their destination through pre-programmed waypoints.
- Ballistic missiles, including the Typhoon, a rebranded version of the Iranian Qadr missile with a range of 1,600 to 1,900 kilometers (995 to 1,180 miles).
The Red Sea corridor has been the target of Houthi missiles and drones since October, as part of a campaign to put pressure on Israel and the West over the Gaza war.
Iranian assistance has allowed the Houthis, despite being labeled as an insurgent group, to launch missile and drone attacks, which has disrupted shipping in the Red Sea corridor and even hit Israel.
According to a Congressional Research Service report, Commercial vessels have been attacked by The Houthis at least 53 times and they have also made a serious threat to naval ships in many other incidents.
Defence experts are describing the US-led campaign against the Houthi rebels as the most intense combat since World War II, largely due to their efforts to prevent shipping attacks, which are being overlooked by the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip.
Iraqi militias
Iran supported an Iraqi state-sponsored paramilitary network composed mostly of Shia Muslim groups known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), also known as Hashd Al-Sha'bi, which was formed by the Iraqi government in 2014 to fight against Islamic State in Iraq, took part in almost all major battles against Islamic State.
Their origins trace back to the 'Special Groups', an Iranian-sponsored Shia groups (supported and funded by the Iranian Quds Force) that have previously engaged in insurgency against the United States and the Coalition forces, and have also engaged in sectarian conflict against Sunni Jihadists and Ba'athist insurgents.
During the Syrian civil war, PMF militia factions that are loyal to the Iranian Supreme Leader have been heavily deployed in Syria to assist the Assad regime and protect Shia shrines, but during its formation, their main focus was primarily on fighting ISIS in Iraq.
The PMF has been widely accused of promoting sectarian violence. They were also engaged in violent clashes during a civil conflict that broke out during the 2021 parliament election between two Shia groups, one of which was an anti-Iranian movement and pro-Iranian forces that resulted in the death and injury of many protesters and activists.
The protests were the largest of their kind in Iraq since the 2003 American invasion, becoming known as the October Revolution.
Since 2020, PMF groups backed by Iran have been engaged in attacks against American and allied forces in the region, labeling themselves as the 'Islamic Resistance in Iraq'.
Capabilities
Estimates indicate that the PMF has a strength of 180,000 fighters and is equipped with rockets, drones, and other weapons. The conflict between Israel and Hamas has spawned other smaller or lesser-known militant groups that have declared attacks on American forces.
According to the Congressional Research Service, Iran-backed militias in Iraq attacked U.S. personnel more than 60 times from the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war in October 2023 until February 4, 2024.
In January 2024, a US military base known as Tower 22 in north-eastern Jordan near the Syrian border was hit by a drone launched by Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, killing three American troops and injuring 34 other service members.The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for the attack. The US military retaliated by striking more than 85 Iran-linked targets in Iraq and Syria, including intelligence centers, command and control headquarters, drones, missiles, and rocket storage sites, and other facilities linked to the IRGC’s Quds Force or militias.
Given these dynamics, the Middle Eastern nations, the United States, and Israel have nervously waited for Iran's promised retaliation. The region is on edge due to Iran's mixed signals and tensions are high.
Gaza will be the deciding factor whether Iran launches an attack on Israel or not.
A full-scale war will be determined by various regional factors, including Hezbollah's involvement as the militia seeks revenge for the Israeli strike that killed its senior commander.
Iran could launch an attack that is similar to the one that took place in April. However, a massive attack by Hezbollah could strain Israeli air defences. Experts fear that increasing the number of missile strikes, increasing the risk of casualties, and escalating further could lead to a greater regional conflict.
by Hamzeh Abu Nowar
The Return of the Taliban
August 28, 2021
Hamzeh Abu Nowar is a senior research analyst for HMSC. Covering the MENA region. He has conducted research on political violence, counterterrorism and international conflict in the MENA and Sahel region.
MENA Research Senior Analyst
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The Return of the Taliban
August 28, 2021