The China-sponsored agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran is changing the political landscape of the Middle East and is a blow to Israel and the U.S.
MENA Research Senior Analyst
The Return of the Taliban
August 28, 2021
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The Chinese-sponsored agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia may lead to stability in the region.
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Hamzeh Abu Nowar is a senior research analyst for HMSC. Covering the MENA region. He has conducted research on political violence, extremism and international conflict in the MENA region.
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by Hamzeh Abu Nowar
The Chinese-backed deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran is a major political quake that will change many political alignments in the Middle East.
Internationally, this is a setback for the United States, which has lost part of one of its most important regional allies, Saudi Arabia to China. The United States and Israel relied on the Saudis and Emiratis to help them weaken the Iranians, but failed to pay adequate attention to Mohammed bin Salman and his father, the Saudi king.
"The Israeli military option is dead now. The Israeli attack against Iran has been nullified because the Israelis will not be able to go through Jordan and Saudi Arabia or Iraq".
HMSC defence and security adviser, Mr. Mamoun Naji, told the Media that the agreement is a good step.
“It will have a direct effect on the balance of forces in the region, and it will have ripple effects on many levels, including that of the Abraham Accords,” he explained’’.
In addition, he said that because of Saudi Arabia's rapprochement with Iran, the UAE's concern about the Iranian and Houthis attacks has diminished and the Gulf Federation won't need Israel anymore.
“The Israeli military option is dead now. The Israeli attack against Iran has been nullified because the Israelis will not be able to go through Jordan and Saudi Arabia or Iraq. The military option is dead,” he said.
He further stated that the Saudi-Iran deal will lead to additional breakthroughs in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. And it will facilitate arrangements regarding south Syria that will be good for Jordan as well. However, he is concerned that Jordan may be affected negatively since it withdrew its ambassador from Tehran in June 2018 for Iran’s “interference in Arab affairs” following an Iranian attack on the Saudis. “They were caught off guard, and they were unaware of the changes going on,” he said.
Furthermore, he said that a political vacuum was created, and vacuums are not good for foreign affairs.
Even though the US has only partially withdrawn from the Middle East, the Chinese were quick to fill that void. But our advisor says that the Americans will not leave the region. “Having said all that, the Saudis will not give up on the US, and the Americans will not give up on the Gulf,” he said.
Now the Palestinian cause will receive a morale boost, he said, but – in addition to Israel and the US – the Emirates came out a loser. “The Israeli protection is useless now, and this is why the UAE suddenly broke off its military deal with the Israelis,” he said, referring to reports that the UAE is suspending certain defense purchases from Jerusalem.
"It is premature to expect that things will be resolved between them".
March 20, 2023
The Return of the Taliban
August 28, 2021